Major City Insights, Book 1: Growth hinges on vaccine roll-out—May 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, May 13, 2021
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In cities across Canada, economic recovery from the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic depends largely on the vaccine rollout and containing the spread of the virus. The hardest-hit sectors of the economy—particularly those that depend on people gathering in public—will take longer to recover.

Book 1 focuses on the metropolitan economies of Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax, Hamilton, Montréal, Ottawa–Gatineau, Quebec City, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, and Winnipeg.

Document Highlights

  • After being hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic last year, Edmonton, Calgary, Québec City, Saskatoon, and Montréal are all forecast to see their real GDP bounce back by 5.0 per cent or more in 2021.
  • Economic growth in Halifax, Regina, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Hamilton is set to rebound by between 4.0 and 4.9 per cent this year as the rollout of vaccines gradually allows economic activity to pick up.
  • Vaccines and the expected easing of pandemic-related restrictions will support economic recoveries of between 3.1 and 3.6 per cent this year in Toronto, Ottawa–Gatineau, and Victoria.
  • Despite the generally positive outlook for economic growth this year, threats from new variants of the virus and extra lockdowns post downward risk to our forecasts.

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