Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2019 (PDF)
The Conference Board of Canada, 21 pages
October 7, 2019
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
Global economic growth is slowing as trade tensions impact businesses’ investment decisions and households’ purchasing power.
After gaining nearly 4 per cent in the second quarter, growth in the Canadian economy is expected to moderate over the remainder of the year. Real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.6 per cent this year.
Canadian labour markets have performed very well over the first half of the year, but job growth will slow over the second half of the year alongside a weaker economy.
Tight labour markets will help sustain wage growth and consumer spending over the near term, despite the debt-service ratio reaching an all-time high in the second quarter.
The housing market is recovering as strong employment and population growth, coupled with lower mortgage rates, is supporting demand.
It has been another weak year for business investment in Canada; however, 2020 looks more promising with energy investment poised for a small rebound and as pipeline projects move forward.
The export sector will feel the impact of slowing global demand.