Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2017

The Conference Board of Canada, 349 pages, April 27, 2017
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta and Ontario will post the strongest economic growth over the long term, with real GDP growth averaging 2 per cent per year from 2017 to 2040.
  • Despite its return as one of Canada’s growth leaders, dealing with the impacts of population aging will be Ontario’s foremost challenge over the next two decades.
  • While we do see crude prices recovering enough in the long term to entice firms back to the oil patch, Alberta must clear several hurdles if it is ever to realize its full potential. Recent conditional federal approval for Enbridge’s Line 3 replacement and Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion projects provides some cause for optimism.
  • Saskatchewan’s economy was booming until the crash in commodity prices caused investment in the potash and oil industries to crash as well. But there is upside potential from heavy oil production due to investment in new thermal projects, a quickly expanding side of the energy industry.
  • The long-term economic prospects for Quebec and the Atlantic provinces are dampened by the aging of their populations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Productivity and Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 2—Prince Edward Island

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry

Chapter 3—Nova Scotia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 4—New Brunswick

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 5—Quebec

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand

Chapter 6—Ontario

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 7—Manitoba

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 8—Saskatchewan

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 9—Alberta

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industrial Sectors
  • Energy Sector Development Provides Economy-Wide Benefits

Chapter 10—British Columbia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

Appendix B—Forecast Tables

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