Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Quebec—June 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, June 17, 2020
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has decimated economic growth in Quebec. Real GDP is forecast to contract by 4.1 per cent in 2020—the most severe contraction on record. Assuming a successful reopening of the economy over the summer, a recovery will take hold and allow the province to rebound with 5.8 per cent growth in 2021.
  • The fallout in labour markets is unprecedented. More than 400,000 jobs are projected to be lost in the first two quarters of this year, resulting in the unemployment rate spiking to 13.6 per cent.
  • Consumer and business confidence have both fallen off a cliff. A necessary condition of the recovery to take hold will be a marked improvement in these metrics—consumer spending and private sector investment will not improve sufficiently otherwise.
  • Although we expect global trade to pick up starting in the second half of this year, a full recovery in international trade volumes will take years.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Quebec snapshot

Overview

Labour markets stumble, confidence crashes, and spending dries up

Winning streak for private investment is over

Recovery in international trade remains far off

COVID-19: Get all the insights

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