Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Newfoundland and Labrador—Autumn 2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 21 pages, January 10, 2020
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP will rebound by 4.5 per cent this year, leading all provinces in economic growth.
  • A surge in oil production will be the main driver for economic growth throughout the medium term.
  • Consumer spending is forecast to be subdued beyond 2019, held back by falling employment, a shrinking labour force, and weaker household income growth.
  • Business investment will fluctuate over the medium term, while the Bay du Nord and Voisey’s Bay expansion projects will keep construction elevated.
  • The province’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined in fiscal year 2019–20 for the first time in eight years, but the government still faces multiple challenges on its path to a balanced budget.

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