The Conference Board China Economy Watch: May Data Surprises to the Upside

The Conference Board, Inc., 7 pages, July 14, 2020
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Member businesses in China are driven, in general, by one or more of three key economic factors: investment, consumption and trade. Our monthly China Economy Watch analysis assesses each factor in turn to inform business planning and forecasting.

Document Highlights

The most recent data confirm that the Chinese economy continues to recover, and more quickly than we expected. Growth readings surprised to the upside in both services production and retail sales. Official GDP growth in Q2 will likely be positive. However, serious trade and unemployment concerns loom large for 2H, as do on-going concerns about virus resurgence as evidenced by the recent outbreak in Beijing. The forceful containment of these outbreaks by the Chinese authorities, albeit effective, point to continued challenges with mobility in China (see: China Center thought piece: “Local Mobility Controls Point to a Re-Fragmentation of the China Operating Environment for MNCs”). Whilst the COVID-19 threat persists, businesses will have to adapt to demand and operating environments that are much more disparate across Chinese localities.

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