Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 360 pages, March 26, 2018
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta and Ontario will post the strongest economic growth over the long term, with real GDP growth averaging slightly above 2 per cent per year from 2018 to 2040.
  • Ontario’s economy has been a growth leader in Canada, as the resource-dependent provinces have suffered deep recessions in recent years. While the pace of GDP growth in Ontario is forecast to slow over the next few years, the province’s economic performance will continue to benefit from solid immigration.
  • Alberta’s economy bounced back from its severe 2015–16 recession, and the recovery continues. The energy sector is performing better but still facing hurdles, notably the price discount for Western Canada Select crude relative to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark price. That gap has widened considerably again.
  • The forecast for Saskatchewan over the next few years is mixed. On one side, the primary sector is benefiting from more favourable global demand conditions for potash and oil. On the other, the uranium industry is struggling. In the long term, and at a time of population aging across Canada, Saskatchewan will benefit from having the youngest population of any province.
  • The long-term economic prospects for Quebec and the Atlantic provinces are dampened by the aging of their populations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Productivity and Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 2—Prince Edward Island

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry

Chapter 3—Nova Scotia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 4—New Brunswick

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 5—Quebec

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand

Chapter 6—Ontario

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industry Outlook

Chapter 7—Manitoba

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 8—Saskatchewan

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 9—Alberta

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Key Industrial Sectors
  • Energy Sector Development Provides Economy-Wide Benefits

Chapter 10—British Columbia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

Appendix B—Forecast Tables

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