Provincial Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2019 (WEB)

The Conference Board of Canada, May 24, 2019
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy has slowed more than expected. Real GDP growth will slip to just 1.4 per cent in 2019 but is expected to rise back up to 2 per cent in 2020.
  • Economic growth will weaken in Ontario and the three Prairie provinces.
  • With optimism in the oil sector low, Alberta is facing a mild recession.
  • The outlook for Ontario has been dampened by the return to fiscal austerity in the most recent provincial budget. Quebec’s economic prospects, however, remain sound.
  • China’s move to block imports of Canadian canola, peas and soybeans, as well as pork from some Quebec producers, will hurt the agriculture sector.
  • Benefiting from strong net international migration, the tides are turning in Atlantic Canada. The region will buck the national trend and will see stronger economic growth in 2019.

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