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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 198 pages, September 4, 2018
Report
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • High debt levels, rising interest rates, and a correction in the housing market are weighing on economic growth in Canada.
  • Most provinces will see their economic performance weaken over the near term.
  • New regulations in the housing sector have slowed new home construction in many provinces, and retail sales declined in the first quarter for the first time since the resource sector recession hit in 2015.
  • Despite trade issues, private investment, mainly in machinery and equipment, has been picking up across the country.
  • The strongest economic performances next year are forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.
  • There are risks to the outlook, the recent announcement in the uranium sector will lead to more layoffs in Saskatchewan and lower uranium production.
  • There is renewed interest in investment in Alberta’s energy sector and the province is primed for private investment growth next year, but no large-scale, multi-phase, multi-billion oil sands capital projects are planned at the moment.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

RÉSUMÉ

Newfoundland and Labrador–New Opportunities in the Oil Industry

  • Consumption Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade and Energy Outlook

Prince Edward Island–Prince Edward Island Set to Lead Canada

  • Population Growth Leads to Boom in Construction Sector
  • Prince Edward Island Remains a Popular Destination for Tourists
  • Balanced Budget Gives P.E.I. Some Fiscal Wiggle Room
  • Manufacturing Set to Continue Its Hot Streak

Nova Scotia–Weaker Growth Ahead for Nova Scotia

  • Nova Scotia’s economic growth will improve slightly this year
  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

New Brunswick–Lack of Workforce Growth Will Slow Economic Growth

  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

Quebec–Tariffs Hurt Trade Prospects

  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Government
  • Trade

Québec–L’imposition de tarifs nuit aux échanges commerciaux

  • Consommation
  • Investissement
  • Gouvernement
  • Échanges commerciaux

Ontario–Ontario’s Economy Entering Period of Uncertainty

  • Weaker Growth in Household Consumer Spending
  • NAFTA Uncertainty Hurts Investment Outlook
  • Toronto Housing Market Beginning to Stabilize
  • New Government Promises to Cut Spending

Manitoba–Key Sectors Face Mixed Growth

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade
  • Key Industries

Saskatchewan–Uranium Sector Difficulties to Hurt Economy

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade
  • Key Industries

Alberta–Pipeline Expansions Good News for Investment Climate

  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade and Energy Outlook

British Columbia–Slower Growth for B.C.’s Economy

  • Ongoing Uncertainty Over Trans Mountain Hurts B.C.’s Economy
  • Measures Implemented to Cool B.C.’s Housing Sector Are Working
  • B.C.’s Budget to Remain in the Black but Surpluses Will Be Smaller

Appendix A–Forecast Tables

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