Plenty of Risks to the Recovery From the COVID-Driven Recession: Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook—September 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages, October 5, 2020
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP will decline by 7.6 per cent for 2020 and then increase by 7.0 per cent in 2021.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic led to a peak of 1.1 million job losses in Ontario, and net jobs won’t recover until late 2021.
  • Investment is struggling this year, but investment in major projects (including work on the Darlington and Bruce nuclear power plants), combined with strong housing starts, means investment levels will be healthy again in 2021 and 2022.
  • Household spending will fall by 10.2 per cent this year but rise 8.6 per cent in 2021.
  • With a massive, pandemic-related deficit adding to already high debt levels, government spending will have to be restrained in the outer years of the forecast.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Ontario snapshot

Overview

Labour, income, and consumption outlooks

Investment outlook

Government outlook

Trade outlook

COVID-19: Get all the insights

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