Canadian Economics

Encouraging news about vaccines suggests that the pandemic should start to fade by the autumn of 2021. However, given that it will take a while before a majority of Americans can be vaccinated, the U.S. economy is in for a tough few months, as surging COVID-19 cases have forced many states to further tighten restrictions while they fight to control the spread of the virus.

Online experience  |  2-min read
January 20, 2021

Inflation decelerated to 0.7 per cent in December. In all, price inflation was only 0.7 per cent in 2020, the smallest increase since 2009. Tightened restrictions across regions in December significantly weighed on consumer demand for transportation, thus pulling down consumer prices.

Quick take  |  2-min read
January 20, 2021

The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady and announced that it will continue with its quantitative easing program. With core inflation well below its target of two per cent, and a slowdown in the economic recovery over the past few months, today’s announcement was expected.

Quick take  |  2-min read
January 20, 2021

Increasing COVID-19 case counts in the fall have begun to affect the broader economy. Manufacturing sales slowed by 0.6 per cent in November, the second consecutive decline. While only a minor decline, more restrictions through December and January should further restrict economic activity, and thus manufacturing output.

Quick take  |  3-min read
January 19, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp contraction in economic activity throughout the world. We expect global real GDP to decline this year, crushed by the lockdowns that brought a halt to non-essential activities in most countries in the second quarter of 2020.

Online experience  |  3-min read
January 18, 2021

The news that safe and effective vaccines against COVID-19 have begun to be distributed has provided optimism that the pandemic could soon be beaten, lifting battered economies all around the world out of the deepest recession in modern times. This aligns with the assumption in our prior forecast, along with the expectation that still rising COVID-19 cases would lead to additional health-related restrictions and flatten the economic recovery over the first half of 2021.

Online experience  |  2-min read
January 12, 2021

There are 10 CMAs with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, the same number as last month. There are only three CMAs in the down-down quadrant, signalling negative expectations for the short and long terms.

Online experience  |  2-min read
January 11, 2021

Rising COVID-19 cases through the late fall and into winter led to shutdowns across the country, which weighed on employment growth. In all, employment fell in December, the first decline in employment since April. With restrictions remaining in place or even being tightened into 2021, employment growth is likely to decline further in January and remain weak in the first half of the year.

Quick take  |  3-min read
January 8, 2021

The U.S. economy will slowly recover from the devastating effects of COVID-19. By 2023, the gap between potential and actual growth should close. However, there will be lingering effects.

Online experience  |  3-min read
January 7, 2021

Canada’s economic recovery depends on an improvement in consumer confidence. While some industries have recovered, many remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Those furthest from recovery are mainly industries that require social gathering and are, from a consumer’s spending perspective, discretionary.

Online experience  |  8-min read
January 4, 2021

Real GDP growth decelerated to 0.4 per cent in October as the second wave of the pandemic drained energy from the recovery. A notable slowdown in manufacturing contributed to this result, as well as a further decline in the accommodation and food services industry.

Quick take  |  3-min read
December 23, 2020

Canada’s existing housing markets continued to plateau at high levels in November. Residential demand persists in the era of COVID-19, although future sales gains will likely be limited as pent-up demand eases and economic prospects remain murky.

Online experience  |  8-min read
December 21, 2020

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales rose 0.4 per cent in October and are up 4.5 per cent compared to their pre-pandemic level. Strong gains in household income and rock bottom interest rates have allowed retail sales to post a speedy recovery compared to most other sectors of the Canadian economy.

Quick take  |  3-min read
December 18, 2020

COVID-19 hit the Canadian tourism sector harder than any other. Its contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was six times larger than the economy’s as a whole. Tourism’s recovery depends on a widely distributed vaccine, the lifting of public health measures, and a broader economic rebound.

Online experience  |  4-min read
December 16, 2020

The economic crisis caused by the pandemic will leave long-lasting scars for many Canadian industries and take a heavy toll on the finances of governments at all levels. The COVID-19 pandemic has already taken a massive toll on the Canadian and global economies.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
December 16, 2020

The Canadian Beverage Association is trying to help Canadians consume fewer calories from non-alcoholic/non-dairy liquid refreshment beverages (LRBs). The association hopes to reduce the average number of LRB calories each person consumes. Since 2014, the average number of calories Canadians consume from LRBs in a day has fallen.

Online experience  |  8-min read
December 11, 2020

This month’s labour market data shows that the jobs recovery continues to lose steam. While the overall number of employed Canadians grew in November, growth this month is the weakest since the beginning of the recovery in May.

Quick take  |  3-min read
December 7, 2020

Canada needs to diversify its trading partners. The unpredictable trade policies of our southern neighbour over the past few years and the challenges caused by COVID-19 have made this clear. Over 70 per cent of Canadian goods and services exports are destined for the United States. And while this reliance will not wane any time soon, Canada should continue to gradually broaden its reach and diversify into other markets. Japan offers many opportunities.

Impact paper  |  45-min read
December 7, 2020

The shape of Canada’s recovery Canada’s economy bounced back in recent months following the deep economic repercussions of the COVID-related shutdown. As health restrictions were lifted in May, the rebound took off. Statistics Canada estimates that by October, 2.4 million jobs had been recovered. The quick rebound is good news, but Canada’s economy still has a way to go before it can be deemed to have returned to normal.

Online experience  |  4-min read
December 3, 2020

Real GDP grew in September. These modest figures, as well as a preliminary estimate growth for October, show that escalating cases of COVID-19 and stricter public health measures have weighed heavily on Canada’s economic recovery.

Quick take  |  4-min read
December 1, 2020

There are 10 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with both positive short- and long-term expectations this month, three more than last month. Ontario cities make up the majority of those with positive expectations for both the short and long terms.

Online experience  |  2-min read
December 1, 2020

Minister Freeland has highlighted the importance of rolling out a vaccine and providing additional support to households and businesses through what will be a tough winter for many Canadians. The additional spending coupled with a lasting negative hit to government revenues will add copiously to the federal debt—boosting the net debt-to-GDP ratio from 35 per cent pre-COVID to around 54 per cent over the medium term.

Quick take  |  3-min read
November 30, 2020

November’s Index of Consumer Confidence stalled for the second consecutive month. COVID-19 cases surged in multiple provinces this month. As the pandemic lingers, more Canadians expect their future finances and job prospects to remain the same in six months.

Online experience  |  3-min read
November 27, 2020

Canada’s existing housing markets plateaued in October. Residential demand persists despite an emerging second COVID-19 wave and still-uncertain economic prospects. Buyers continue to be lured by ultra-low interest rates and the desire for more living space in an era of pandemic restrictions and work-from-home practices.

Online experience  |  3-min read
November 23, 2020

Despite the improvement, business sentiment remains well below its pre-pandemic level. This is a concerning development considering that, heading into this year, the Index had already been hovering at its lowest level since the financial crisis over a decade ago.

Online experience  |  5-min read
November 23, 2020

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales rose in September. Strong gains in household income—due largely to government stimulus during the pandemic—and historically low interest rates have been encouraging sales of big-ticket items.

Quick take  |  2-min read
November 20, 2020

Housing markets have always mirrored social trends in Canada. The automobile, for example, helped fuel suburban growth in the mid-20th century. A home-ownership tsunami brought on by baby boomers led to a decline in the construction of new rental units in the 1990s. And in the past 20 years, the housing story has been about the growth of our cities, at the cost of small towns and rural communities.

Op-ed  |  5-min read
November 19, 2020

Inflation inched up in October thanks to increases in food and shelter prices. While the demand for clothing, travel and transportation remained suppressed, consumer prices continued to rise because of a pick-up in housing demand and limited supply of product amid the pandemic.

Quick take  |  2-min read
November 18, 2020

With September numbers in, manufacturing sales rebounded in the third quarter, following the sharp decline in the second quarter of the year. Growth was widespread across industries and regions. Higher prices for lumber, coupled with sharp increases in exports of forestry products and building and packaging materials, supported growth in the wood industry while higher sales of pharmaceuticals and medicine amid the pandemic led to higher sales in chemical manufacturing.

Quick take  |  2-min read
November 16, 2020

Physicians provide the invaluable and essential service of delivering health care to Canadians. While health care is often considered in terms of costs to governments and taxpayers, it also generates many economic benefits at the national, provincial/territorial, and community levels.

Issue briefing  |  45-min read
November 10, 2020

COVID-19 is challenging many Canadian industries in an unprecedented way. As businesses across the country try to adapt, our Canadian Industrial Outlook reports look deeply into the latest developments affecting Canadian industries.

Online experience  |  2-min read
November 10, 2020

In another sign of the resilience of Canada’s recovery, employment rose in October. With shutdowns enacted in some provinces and cases rising in nearly all, this month’s reading should be embraced with some enthusiasm. However, the enthusiasm should be tempered as employment could weaken in November because COVID-19 cases remain high in many provinces.

Quick take  |  2-min read
November 6, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted product shipments and forced many Canadian businesses to adjust their supply chains. For some, this has involved sourcing more inputs from local suppliers. The current economic hardship has also caused a surge of solidarity from Canadians who are supporting businesses by buying locally. But a strategy focused on buying local is not the solution Canada’s economy needs.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
November 4, 2020

The sudden, devastating global recession that saw almost every country in the world implement strict lockdown measures to control the spread of COVID‑19 led to huge business closures and job losses. Despite the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented by governments across the world to fight the collapse in global demand, the virus has pummelled business and consumer confidence..

Online experience  |  3-min read
November 2, 2020

Although the precise economic and financial toll of COVID-19 on the economy remains uncertain and depends on how long the crisis lasts, Canada’s health care system is already experiencing significant change and will likely continue to do so over the longer term.

Impact paper  |  55-min read
October 30, 2020

In light of a dim outlook, the Bank of Canada unsurprisingly kept its policy interest rate on hold today, while adjusting its quantitative easing program. The central bank reiterated that the economy is not close to recovering, and that core inflation remains below its 2 per cent target.

Quick take  |  2-min read
October 28, 2020

As the second wave of COVID-19 spread across several regions, Canadians started to worry that more restrictive physical distancing measures may weigh on their future employment prospects. As a result, shares of positive responses on the question declined while pessimistic views increased.

Online experience  |  3-min read
October 27, 2020

There are seven CMAs with positive short- and long-term expectations this month. Short-term expectations for all the Western census metropolitan areas (CMAs) continue to be negative. All three British Columbia CMAs report negative expectations for both the short and long terms.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 26, 2020

Forecasters surveyed by The Conference Board of Canada in the autumn have a slightly more optimistic view of the economy’s short-term prospects than they did in summer. Still, the situation remains bleak. Based on responses to the survey, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting shutdown of the economy in March and April will result in a decline in real GDP this year.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 26, 2020

Canada’s existing housing markets continued to surge in September, despite evidence of a second COVID wave and still-uncertain economic prospects. Markets are responding to ultra-low interest rates and households' desire for living space as COVID restrictions and work-from-home practices persist.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 21, 2020

Inflation remained muted in September—prices for gasoline and tourism-related services continue to be the main source of downward pressure. Core inflation held steady, which is below the Bank of Canada’s target. While some consumer products have faced upward price pressure, we expect overall inflation to remain at or below the central bank’s target until mid-next year.

Quick take  |  2-min read
October 21, 2020

The Canadian economy is in the midst of its worst downturn in decades. Life in cities across the country has been brought to a standstill by the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures imposed to control it. While the impacts are being felt across all cities and industries, some are being hit harder than others.

Online experience  |  3-min read/city
October 20, 2020

As COVID-19 containment measures began to ease after the first wave, business leaders and policy-makers here in Canada and around the world started to think about how to deal with the aftermath of the pandemic. This means finding the right strategies to rebuild their economies and improve supply chain resiliency to future shocks.

Issue briefing  |  11-min read
October 20, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

With the onset of COVID-19, the already-struggling Canadian manufacturing sector suffered significant declines in March and April. Since then, manufacturing sales have strived toward recovery. However, the latest August decline signals that recovery will have to wait.

Quick take  |  1-min read
October 16, 2020

National employment levels continued their recovery at a stronger pace in September. Employment remained lower than pre-pandemic February in all provinces. Canada has now recovered approximately 2.3 million of the 3.0 million jobs lost during the pandemic.

Quick take  |  2-min read
October 9, 2020

Canada’s existing housing markets continued red-hot in August, despite end-of-month signs of a COVID-19 uptick and still-soft employment conditions. Markets are responding to ultra-low interest rates and a desire for living space in the event of another lockdown.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 1, 2020

For the first time in our monthly flyer, there are no CMAs with positive expectations for the short term, as residential permits have fallen in all areas, due in part to COVID-19.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 1, 2020

Following a jump in June, real GDP grew in July. This slower pace of recovery is in line with estimates from The Conference Board of Canada’s latest national forecast. While a continued recovery back to pre-pandemic levels of output is promising, real GDP still lies below its February level. With the number of new COVID-19 cases climbing in many provinces, further economic recovery is expected to continue at a much more moderate pace.

Quick take  |  3-min read
September 30, 2020

September’s consumer confidence ticked higher, but recovery is far from over. The Index of Consumer Confidence inched up in September, thanks to increased overall optimism on all four survey questions. Despite this month’s uptick, the pace of the recovery of consumer confidence has stalled.

Online experience  |  3-min read
September 30, 2020

In a sparsely attended ceremony, Governor General Julie Payette delivered a speech detailing the government’s direction over their remaining mandate. The Speech highlighted a number of programs, targets and measures that address many important issues and challenges facing Canada and Canadians.

Quick take  |  5-min read
September 24, 2020

Canada is fortunate: It has a vast, well-connected network of trails that weave through built and natural environments alike. Trails provide character and access to cities, boost tourism, contribute to mental and physical health, and help relieve stress on the natural ecosystem.

Online experience  |  2-min read
September 21, 2020

In The Conference Board of Canada’s latest survey of business leaders, business confidence has partially rebounded from its lowest level on record last April. Prior to the pandemic, business sentiment had already been languishing at its lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008–09.

Online experience  |  8-min read
August 25, 2020

In an era of lightning-fast technological change, it’s more important than ever that Canadian leaders understand how the adoption of new technologies will impact Canada’s labour force.

Online experience  |  4-min read
May 28, 2020

Technological change has always affected how humans organize and work. Rapid technological change makes it more critical than ever that Canadian leaders understand how the adoption of new technologies impacts Canada’s labour markets.

Issue briefing  |  10-min read
May 28, 2020