Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Newfoundland and Labrador—2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 33 pages, March 31, 2020
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This annual economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook.

  • The offshore oil industry and strong investment spending will support steady economic growth in the provincial economy for the next decade.
  • A declining population will constrain growth in potential output over the long term.
  • Oil production is expected to slow down over the 2030–40 period, and this will dampen the province’s growth in exports.
  • An aging population, with its growing need for health care, will put pressure on the provincial budget.
  • By 2040, Newfoundland and Labrador will have the highest ratio of per capita interprovincial out-migration among the provinces.

Table of Contents

Summary

Newfoundland and Labrador—Slowdown in oil production will weigh on economic growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry analysis

Appendix A—Defining and estimating potential output for Canada’s provinces

  • Measuring potential output
  • Estimating potential employment
  • Estimating capital
  • Estimating total factor productivity
  • The output gap

Appendix B—Data Tables

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