Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2016
The Conference Board of Canada, 30 pages
October 27, 2016
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- A weak second quarter has led us to lower our forecast for economic growth this year to 1.3 per cent. Next year, growth is expected to pick up to 2 per cent.
- Demand for our exports is being held back by weak global growth. In 2017, a pickup in the U.S. economy and slightly stronger growth in the rest of the world should boost our exports.
- Despite weak job gains and wage growth, households will be the main driver of economic growth this year. However, moving forward, consumer spending will slow, held back by the record-high level of consumer debt.
- The large decline in business investment over the last several years remains a major concern. While much of the weakness is due to the collapse in energy investment, non-energy investment has also performed poorly.
- Without a substantial improvement in business investment, the economy is unlikely to see growth above 2 per cent throughout the medium term.