A Promising Boost From Government Pandemic Response: New Brunswick’s Two-Year Outlook—September 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 9 pages, September 17, 2020
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of New Brunswick examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • New Brunswick has been one of the most successful provinces in the country when it comes to limiting the spread of COVID-19. Consequently, the hit to employment hasn’t been as large as in other regions in Canada.
  • New Brunswick typically weathers recessions better than other provinces, but it also sees slower recoveries. We are expecting these same trends to play out again over the next two years.
  • Housing starts will decline this year and again in 2021. The drop next year will be due to sharply weaker population growth.
  • Exports to the U.S. market should rebound in 2021, thanks to higher growth in the U.S. economy and a competitively valued loonie. However, a failure to better contain the virus could lead to weaker U.S. growth, which would hurt the province’s exporters.
  • Investment in the province has declined significantly over the last 10 years. COVID-19 has reinforced this trend, as companies have pulled back on expansion plans while they focus on surviving the collapse in demand.

Table of Contents

Key findings

New Brunswick snapshot

Overview

Consumer outlook

Investment outlook

Housing outlook

Trade

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