Spurred by Reopening, Jobs Return: Canada’s Two-Year Household Income and Employment Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, October 21, 2021
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on household income and employment. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • The easing of restrictions has spurred job growth concentrated in high-contact services.
  • The economy will add a further 175,000 jobs in the final quarter of 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
  • Employment growth will moderate over 2022 and stabilize in the years beyond as the economy returns to a stable growth path.
  • Participation rates, which have mostly recovered, will begin to trend downward over the forecast period as Canada’s demographic challenges resurface.
  • In the final stretch of the labour market recovery, employers will continue to face hiring challenges despite elevated unemployment.
  • The progress across industries remains uneven with employment in the agriculture sector struggling.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Household Income and Employment Snapshot
Unemployment Falling, Participation Rates Recovered
The Labour Shortage Conundrum
Falling Unemployment Rate Hides Labour Market Slack
Rising Employment Hides Uneven Progress Across Industries

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