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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: March 2020

Pre-pandemic markets brisk but outlook is murky

  • The COVID-19 outbreak presents considerable risk to the resale market. Threats include uncertain job security, cancelled open houses, and plunging values of consumer investments slated to become down payments. Recent sharp interest rate cuts will struggle to overcome these obstacles. A silver lining? Prospects for overheated markets in many areas seem reduced.  
  • Widespread sales increases continue to produce taut markets in many areas, although listings are beginning to rebound. Still, 16 of our 30 areas face sellers’ conditions and several more are just below their sales-to-listings cut-off. Sales were above year-earlier levels in 28 markets last month, and listings rose in 24 areas year-over-year. Balanced markets prevail in 13 areas. Only Regina is in a buyers' state.  
  • Vancouver sales edged higher in February and were sharply above year-earlier levels. They remain historically modest. Montréal volumes plateaued near their record summit. Toronto sales hit a three-year high last month, aided by rebounding listings. Calgary transactions rose for the third straight month but remain historically modest. 
  • The levelling of Montréal sales trimmed its sales-to-listings ratio, but it remains near its record peak. Rising sales lifted Vancouver's ratio. Toronto's was little changed and remains just below seller's levels. Calgary's sales-to-listing ratio eased slightly and continues to signal only a weak market balance.
  • Price growth was red-hot in Toronto and Montréal last month, with both cities seeing double-digit increases from a year earlier. Vancouver's prices rose last month and were above their year-earlier level for the first month in 15. Calgary's prices were lower both on the month and on the year. 

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Ottawa
  • Thunder Bay
  • Fraser Valley
  • Kingston
 
   
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Oshawa
  • Regina
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Toronto
  • Windsor
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Sherbrooke
  • Saguenay
  • Moncton
   
 
 
  • Halifax
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Trois-Rivières

 



  • Newfoundland
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Saint John
  • Saskatoon
  • Winnipeg
  • Gatineau

 


*Average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)

+7% Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Montréal, Halifax  
5–6.9% Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Sudbury, Gatineau, Sherbrooke, Saguenay, Moncton, Trois-Rivières, Québec City, Saint John 
3–4.9% Victoria, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Newfoundland 
0–2.9% Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon  
Falling Regina

Resale indicators for February 2020

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   7,392 12,792     706,317
m/m % Balanced 2.2 5.3 0.574 0.482–0.762 –6.1
y/y %   29.1 25.6     0.5
    28,812 54,264     997,491
Vancouver Balanced 2.0 –2.0 0.547 0.437–0.721 0.9
    47.4 3.4     6.9
    16,776 31,152     767,311
Fraser Valley4 Balanced 9.0 16.6 0.547 0.445–0.716 –0.2
    39.7 12.0     9.6
    22,740 43,332     439,569
Calgary Balanced 4.5 6.3 0.512 0.466–0.729 –1.2
    18.1 9.4     –0.8
    18,960 39,564     363,458
Edmonton Balanced 4.7 7.2 0.465 0.448–0.731 –0.8
    7.0 3.9     0.3
    2,988 6,372     299,782
Regina Buyers' 13.2 3.7 0.471 0.492–0.758 1.2
    –8.5 13.7     –3.9
    5,148 10,836     303,323
Saskatoon Balanced 0.2 –2.5 0.469 0.426–0.682 –3.3
    7.0 –4.9     –2.5
    13,896 23,400     292,975
Winnipeg Balanced –2.4 –5.2 0.611 0.449–0.791 –4.6
    11.5 18.1     –3.4
    2,028 3,348     232,514
Thunder Bay Balanced –7.7 16.3 0.626 0.504–0.729 –3.0
    –5.6 10.7     1.2
    2,808 3,972     286,699
Sudbury Sellers' 39.3 31.9 0.741 0.346–0.636 1.9
    7.3 20.4     10.5
    107,052 166,968     902,673
Toronto Balanced 14.9 15.6 0.673 0.466–0.690 3.1
    44.8 5.0     16.4
    13,176 19,188     656,350
Oshawa Balanced 16.6 4.3 0.668 0.480–0.746 0.8
    54.4 10.9     14.1
    14,568 20,988     639,821
Hamilton Balanced 12.1 11.1 0.730 0.435–0.793 1.0
    32.8 4.9     14.4
    2,940 4,788     530,756
St. Catharines Balanced 3.4 11.1 0.644 0.396–0.706 –0.4
    21.9 8.4     20.8
    8,760 12,156     571,867
Kitchener Sellers' 17.2 21.8 0.766 0.483–0.760 2.6
    26.1 3.3     17.4
    3,444 4,440     637,954
Guelph Balanced 16.2 7.6 0.784 0.506–0.834 9.9
    41.4 14.6     14.6
    11,568 15,000     440,908
London Sellers' 8.1 4.4 0.770 0.412–0.676 –0.3
    23.0 15.2     12.6
    7,236 10,836     399,382
Windsor Sellers' 23.1 14.7 0.693 0.448–0.682 1.7
    12.5 12.6     20.2
    3,900 6,000     438,646
Kingston Sellers' 6.2 2.0 0.667 0.315–0.606 5.1
    3.2 1.4     15.8
    19,128 22,476     514,333
Ottawa Sellers' 1.4 18.6 0.891 0.406–0.694 7.0
    11.2 –5.5     20.4
    6,277 7,042     277,095
Gatineau Sellers' 13.9 7.7 0.929 0.440–0.696 –0.7
    44.0 –2.9     4.3
    60,204 63,192     432,389
Montréal Sellers' –0.3 6.0 0.955 0.564–0.765 1.4
    23.4 –3.4     12.6
    10,766 13,976     283,497
Québec City Sellers' 5.1 –2.8 0.757 0.502–0.734 2.0
    43.3 0.3     3.6
    2,282 2,908     284,722
Sherbrooke Sellers' –2.2 6.6 0.784 0.454–0.696 3.2
    14.6 8.5     15.2
    1,475 1,752     171,567
Trois-Rivières Sellers' –13.9 –6.6 0.816 0.490–0.742 –7.1
    22.5 8.1     2.5
    1,690 2,300     194,297
Saguenay Sellers' 30.6 2.0 0.733 0.445–0.681 –0.9
    41.2 –5.8     7.4
    2,664 3,732     184,011
Saint John Sellers' 4.2 41.4 0.727 0.370–0.595 –0.7
    32.1 15.2     0.9
    3,636 4,524     197,361
Moncton Sellers' 18.4 2.4 0.824 0.403–0.628 2.4
    15.6 5.7     5.7
    6,996 8,784     334,973
Halifax Sellers' –1.0 7.8 0.815 0.425–0.783 –1.1
    15.0 1.1     9.6
    5,076 8,652     237,347
Newfoundland
Sellers' 41.0 0.8 0.608 0.345–0.577 2.8
(province)   45.9 –23.2     –0.7

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.
        
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. All products related to our COVID-19 coverage will be available for free on our website. To access them, go to conferenceboard.ca. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.
    
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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