Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2016

The Conference Board of Canada, 153 pages, May 11, 2016
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

  • The economies of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec are already challenged by a constrained labour force.
  • Despite a weakened energy sector, long-term economic prospects are positive for Alberta as oil prices are expected to pick up in the next decade.
  • British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta will post the strongest economic growth over the long term with real GDP growth averaging around 2 per cent per year from 2016 to 2035.
  • Solid international migration and a dollar below parity will help boost prospects for Ontario’s economy over the forecast period.
  • As most provinces are still facing fiscal budget deficits, long-term fiscal balance will require swift spending control and may be difficult to maintain.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Productivity and Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 2—Prince Edward Island

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 3—Nova Scotia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Force
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 4—New Brunswick

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Force
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 5—Quebec

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand

Chapter 6—Ontario

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand

Chapter 7—Manitoba

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Force
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 8—Saskatchewan

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Market Outcome
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 9—Alberta

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Key Industrial Sectors
  • Energy Sector Development Provides Economy-Wide Benefits
  • Consumer and Labour Markets
  • Public Sector

Chapter 10—British Columbia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Force
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

Forecast Tables

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