Inflation trends holding steady in October; thanks to few key factors.

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Ottawa, November 8th, 2019—The Conference Board of Canada’s Economist Anna Feng offers the following insights on today's Consumer Price Index data:

Inflation held steady at 1.9 per cent last month. Core inflation edged up to an average of 2.1 per cent. With inflation at target and recent indicators pointing to continued economic growth, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates when it meets early next month.

Insights

  • Inflation was up 1.9 per cent in October, matching the increase in September and August.
  • Core inflation remains well anchored around the Bank of Canada’s target. The average of the Bank’s three measures of core inflation was 2.1 per cent last month, up slightly from a revised 2.0 per cent in September. CPI-median inched up to 2.1 per cent while CPI-common and CPI-trim stayed steady at 1.9 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively
  • Mortgage interest costs continue to support price growth, increasing at a 7.0 per cent pace in October. Increases in mortgage interest costs have been trending down over the past few months, reflecting lower mortgage rates.
  • Gasoline prices were down 6.7 per cent relative to last October, a smaller decline compared to the 10 per cent drop last month. Excluding gasoline, inflation grew by 2.3 per cent last month.
  • With inflation close to the target and recent indicators pointing to continued economic growth in the third quarter, we expect the Bank of Canada stay on hold into 2020 as it weighs the extent of the impact of the global economic slowdown against the risk of stoking household financial vulnerabilities from any easing of its current policy stance.

Anna Feng

Economist

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