Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (PDF)

The Conference Board of Canada, 28 pages, December 18, 2018
Executive Summary by
4.5/5 based on 11 reviews
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019.
  • Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth.
  • Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending.
  • Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta.
  • Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Economic Risks Tilt to the Downside
  • World Economic Growth Plateauing
  • U.S. Economy Is Moving Toward More Sustainable Growth
  • Households Tighten Their Purse Strings
  • Rising Interest Rates, Moderating Employment Gains, and Policy Moves Cool Housing Markets
  • Collapse in Oil Prices Hitting Canada’s Energy Sector Hard
  • Investment Growth Will Be Led by the Non-mining Side
  • Trade Hits a Few Speed Bumps
  • Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns
  • Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

Reviews

Muaz Nasir -  March 26, 2019
 
Dael Olsonberg -  February 15, 2019
 
Rohin Khurana -  January 25, 2019
Very useful document containing key statistics and summary explanation of selected forecasts.
 
Ryan Fisher -  January 23, 2019
 
Ian Wang -  January 22, 2019
This is a comprehensive overview of the opportunities and challenges in Canadian economy based on information available in early 2019.  Though it doesn't give much insights not available elsewhere, it does incorporate a bird's-eye view of the economy, and encourages further research and analysis if the readers are interested in any topics covered.  Personally I would valuate it more if a more integrated analysis is done, i.e. connecting the various dots mentioned by looking at their interactions.  After all, economy is a function of the various forces moving in different directions, and when a diversified economy is not necessarily driven by any one dominant factor (as the Canadian economy is, country to the perception of the importance of energy, housing or trade), those interactions are more important to understand its trajectory.  To be honest, I don't see many such analysis done professionally in the public and private sector, while the academia is more theoretical in nature.  I do hope that the Conference Board would be able to take the lead, perhaps with the collaboration of other think-tanks and from experts in other areas.
 
Tom Lam -  January 22, 2019
 
Michael Exner -  January 9, 2019
 
Kamran Soleiman -  January 2, 2019
Insightful and comprehensive; a great source to educate yourself on major trends impacting economy.

I would have liked it if the data series included longer historic data.
 
Philippe Cool-Godin -  December 18, 2018
 
Maxime Noel -  December 18, 2018
 
Jenny Reile -  December 18, 2018
 

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