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Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (PDF) The Conference Board of Canada, 28 pages, December 18, 2018 Executive Summary by Matthew Stewart

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (PDF)

The Conference Board of Canada, 28 pages, December 18, 2018
Executive Summary by Matthew Stewart

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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook. Web version of executive summary Document Highlights The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019. Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth. Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending. Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta. Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector. Table of Contents Executive Summary Economic Risks Tilt to the Downside World Economic Growth Plateauing U.S. Economy Is Moving Toward More Sustainable Growth Households Tighten Their Purse Strings Rising Interest Rates, Moderating Employment Gains, and Policy Moves Cool Housing Markets Collapse in Oil Prices Hitting Canada’s Energy Sector Hard Investment Growth Will Be Led by the Non-mining Side Trade Hits a Few Speed Bumps Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach Appendix A—Forecast Tables

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Web version of executive summary

Document Highlights

The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019.
Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth.
Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending.
Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta.
Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector.

Executive Summary

Economic Risks Tilt to the Downside
World Economic Growth Plateauing
U.S. Economy Is Moving Toward More Sustainable Growth
Households Tighten Their Purse Strings
Rising Interest Rates, Moderating Employment Gains, and Policy Moves Cool Housing Markets
Collapse in Oil Prices Hitting Canada’s Energy Sector Hard
Investment Growth Will Be Led by the Non-mining Side
Trade Hits a Few Speed Bumps
Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns
Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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