Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2017

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2017 The Conference Board of Canada, 26 pages, November 13, 2017 Executive Summary by Matthew Stewart

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook. Document Highlights The Canadian economy posted phenomenal growth in the first half of 2017, thanks in large part to strong consumer spending and a long-awaited rebound in business investment. Real GDP will grow by a strong 3.1 per cent in 2017 before returning to more normal growth of 2.0 per cent in 2018. Household consumption has been driving the economy’s recent strong performance, but consumers’ ability to spend is starting to weaken due to high consumer debt levels, slow wage growth, and a cooling housing market—a trend that will continue into next year. After two years of falling, business investment will manage a small increase in 2017. However, levels will remain below their 2010 peak throughout the remainder of the forecast. Exports are expected to see modest growth in 2017 and 2018, thanks to a large increase in oil and gas exports. Excluding energy, merchandise exports will decline this year as some sectors face challenges that will continue to weigh on their growth in the near term. Table of Contents Executive Summary—Slower Growth in Store World Outlook—Growth Is Picking Up Canadian Economy Appendix A—Forecast Tables

The Canadian economy posted phenomenal growth in the first half of 2017, thanks in large part to strong consumer spending and a long-awaited rebound in business investment.
Real GDP will grow by a strong 3.1 per cent in 2017 before returning to more normal growth of 2.0 per cent in 2018.
Household consumption has been driving the economy’s recent strong performance, but consumers’ ability to spend is starting to weaken due to high consumer debt levels, slow wage growth, and a cooling housing market—a trend that will continue into next year.
After two years of falling, business investment will manage a small increase in 2017. However, levels will remain below their 2010 peak throughout the remainder of the forecast.
Exports are expected to see modest growth in 2017 and 2018, thanks to a large increase in oil and gas exports. Excluding energy, merchandise exports will decline this year as some sectors face challenges that will continue to weigh on their growth in the near term.

Executive Summary—Slower Growth in Store

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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