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Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 361 pages, February 8, 2019
Report
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta will post the strongest economic growth over the long term, being the only province with real GDP growth averaging above (albeit, just slightly) 2.0 per cent per year from 2019 to 2040. The outlook for the energy sector is helping Alberta’s long-term economic outlook. However, another investment boom in the oil sands similar to what we saw over the 2010–14 period is not expected any time soon.
  • The Ontario, British Columbia, and Prince Edward Island economies have been growth leaders in Canada in recent years, propelled by booming housing markets. But housing as an engine of growth has run its course. Nevertheless, Ontario will continue to be one of the growth leaders as it benefits from solid immigration.
  • Up there with Ontario’s, Saskatchewan’s long-term economic prospects are good, thanks to a young and growing population and strong global demand for potash and agricultural products.
  • The long-term economic prospects for Quebec and the Atlantic provinces are dampened by the aging of their populations. Those provinces are already facing rising retirement rates, as well as labour markets operating at full employment. In Quebec, the number of jobs that remain unfilled is rising.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 2—Prince Edward Island

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 3—Nova Scotia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 4—New Brunswick

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 5—Quebec

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand

Chapter 6—Ontario

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 7—Manitoba

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 8—Saskatchewan

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Chapter 9—Alberta

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis
  • Energy Sector Developments Provide Economy-Wide Benefits

Chapter 10—British Columbia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

Appendix B—Forecast Tables

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