Fragile Recovery Hinges on Election Result and COVID-19 Response: U.S. Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages, October 27, 2020
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This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Document Highlights

  • The U.S. economy will decline by 4.4 per cent this year before recovering
  • and expanding by 3.9 per cent in 2021.
  • The recovery depends crucially on a vaccine being available sometime in the third quarter of 2021.
  • Spending in the services sector has borne the brunt of the steep downturn in household spending.
  • While labour markets are recovering, the unemployment rate will remain above pre-COVID-19 levels through the medium term.
  • Interest rates will not increase until the early part of 2023 as the Fed believes the recovery remains fragile due to the elevated level of uncertainty.
  • The fiscal deficit soared to over $5 trillion in the second quarter of this year due to the massive spending required to support the economy in the face of massive job losses.
  • A Joe Biden victory in November would eliminate some but not all of the trade irritants linked to the Trump administration.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Introduction

Aggregate demand

Fiscal policy

Labour markets

Appendix A—Methodology

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