Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 175 pages, March 31, 2020
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook.

  • Population aging is the most important issue facing the Canadian economy in the long term.
  • The demographic challenges will vary from region to region.
  • Younger provinces, such as those in the Prairies, will have fewer retirements, allowing them to post higher rates of economic growth.
  • Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia will experience weaker economic growth due to rapid aging of their populations.
  • Alberta will post the strongest economic growth over the forecast and will be the only province able to maintain a rate of growth above 2.0 per cent annually.

Table of Contents

Summary

Newfoundland and Labrador—Slowdown in oil production will weigh on economic growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry analysis

Prince Edward Island—Demographics determine the path of long-term growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry

Nova Scotia—Demographics will be a drag on growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Key industry outlook

New Brunswick—A declining population limits potential

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Key industry outlook

Quebec—Population aging means weaker growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand

Ontario—Changing demographic patterns underpin long-term outlook for Ontario

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Key industries outlook

Manitoba—Demographics will drive Manitoba’s economic growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry analysis

Saskatchewan—Weak investment hurting Saskatchewan’s potential

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry analysis

Alberta—Alberta to lead provinces in long-term growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output and productivity
  • Aggregate demand
  • Key industrial sectors
  • Energy sector developments provide economy-wide benefits

British Columbia—Population aging will weigh on growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output
  • Aggregate demand
  • Industry analysis

Appendix A—Defining and estimating potential output for Canada’s provinces

  • Measuring potential output
  • Estimating potential employment
  • Estimating capital
  • Estimating total factor productivity
  • The output gap

Appendix B—Data Tables

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