Canadian Trade Forecast by Main Trading Partners: What Will Canada’s Trade Look Like in 2020?

The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages, October 18, 2016
Briefing by
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This briefing provides an overview of The Conference Board of Canada’s outlook for Canadian exports and imports, focusing on its main trading partners—the U.S., the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom), the U.K., and China. The briefing expands on the long-standing forecast by industry, as found in our Canadian Outlook.

For interactive charts representing the detailed forecast of Canadian exports and imports by country and type of traded goods and services, you can access The Conference Board of Canada’s Interactive Trade Forecast page.

Document Highlights

  • Growth in Canadian exports has been modest so far this year, due in large part to the sluggishness in the U.S. economy.
  • In 2017, we expect the gradual rise in commodity prices, improving U.S. economic activity, and the still-low Canadian dollar to generate faster growth in Canadian exports to our southern neighbour.
  • While the U.S. is, by far, Canada’s largest trading partner, about a quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports and more than 40 per cent of its services exports go to non-U.S. markets. Canadian exports to some of these trading partners (such as the EU and China) should grow at a relatively fast pace in coming years, although risks to the global economy remain.
  • Weak demand within Canada and a Canadian dollar trading below 80 cents U.S. have weighed on import activity over the past two years. Higher commodity prices and a moderate increase in business investment in 2017 should lift demand for goods and services within Canada, leading to rising imports.

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