Provincial Long-Term Economic Forecast for Nova Scotia: 2016

The Conference Board of Canada, 51 pages, May 17, 2016
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This annual economic forecast for the province of Nova Scotia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Nova Scotia will see better economic growth over the near term, thanks to healthy gains in manufacturing and construction.
  • Real GDP growth will average 1.7 per cent over the next five years.
  • Beyond 2021, economic growth will slow. The growing wave of retirement among the baby boomers will restrict labour force growth and slow down potential output growth.
  • The province’s population will decline as immigration gains are offset by the aging of the population.
  • The government will continue to face financial challenges as population aging limits the provincial revenue base.
  • Given the softer domestic demand, inflationary pressures are expected to remain at bay over the long term.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Nova Scotia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Labour Force
  • Potential Output and Productivity
  • Employment and Income
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

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