Will Quebec Pay a Price for Early Reopening? Quebec’s Two-Year Outlook—October 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 12 pages, October 5, 2020
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Quebec’s real GDP is forecast to shrink 7.2 per cent this year, led by a 10.8 per cent contraction in the second quarter. Next year, the economy is expected to rebound with growth of 5.3 per cent.
  • Employment is forecast to fall 5.3 per cent this year as 232,000 jobs are lost. It should return to its pre-pandemic levels by the second half of 2021.
  • The pandemic has sent the government’s finances off course. In its June budget update, the provincial government revised its projected balance for this fiscal year, down from a $3-billion surplus to a $15-billion deficit.
  • Aerospace manufacturing, Quebec’s largest exporter, has been hit especially hard, as the pandemic has slashed global air travel and led major airliners to ground most of their airplane fleets.
  • Quebec’s aluminum producers are being hurt by the collapse in global manufacturing activity and the U.S. decision in August to reimpose tariffs on imports of Canadian aluminum.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Quebec snapshot

Will Quebec pay a price for early reopening?

Labour, income, and consumption outlook

Investment outlook

Government outlook

Trade outlook

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