During this webinar, Matthew Stewart and Brent Dowdall outline the Conference Board’s NAFTA research and provide estimates of the economic impact of NAFTA termination.
- In this scenario, we consider the impact of a dissolution of the NAFTA as of January 1, 2018, with a return to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff rates.
- The analysis provides estimates on key economic indicators for both Canada and the U.S. including: gross domestic product, employment losses, the unemployment rate, exchange rates, trade outlook.
- In Canada, higher domestic prices, loss of international competitiveness and reduced demand from our largest trading partner have a negative impact. Regionally, the decline in economic activity is felt most acutely in Ontario.
- In the U.S., higher prices and the appreciation of its exchange rate negatively impact export volumes and business investment. Import volumes are also down as consumer and business spending declines.
Matthew Stewart is Director, National Forecast at The Conference Board of Canada, specializing in the Canadian and world economy. Matthew has a proven track record of producing and communicating leading-edge custom economic research and analysis for a variety of private and public sector audiences. Matthew oversees the National Forecast Publication, the Fiscal Snapshots and the Indices reports. Recent publications include an examination of the role of early childhood education (ECE) in reducing income inequality and boosting economic growth, an estimate of the demand and supply of physicians based on projections of disease incidence and risk factors, and a report on the economic impacts of reducing GHG emissions. Matthew is also involved in international development. Recently he conducted a training program to train Indonesian government officials on the factors that could affect trade with Canada. Matthew has a M.A. (Economics) from McMaster University and a B.A. (Honours Economics) from The University of Western Ontario.
Brent Dowdall is Senior Manager, Research and Business Development, at The Conference Board of Canada. He is the co-author of NAFTA 2.0 and Canada: Upgrading a 20th Century Deal for a 21st Century World. Brent has a Bachelor of Journalism and a Master of Arts in Political Science, both from Carleton University. He joined The Conference Board of Canada in 2002.