Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2018
The Conference Board of Canada
September 19, 2018
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- Although the economy performed well in the second quarter of 2018, growth will slow over the remainder of the year and into 2019.
- The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018 as a whole before slowing to 1.8 per cent in 2019.
- Concerns over trade negotiations, carbon taxes, and a perception that Canada’s tax competitiveness has been eroded are hurting the willingness of firms to increase their capital spending.
- A shortage of pipeline capacity has limited our ability to take advantage of higher world oil prices. The outlook for oil investment remains bleak.
- Despite strong demand from the U.S., high capacity utilization in manufacturing is limiting our ability to increase our exports.
- The economic acceleration in the second quarter took a significant chunk out of the economy’s excess capacity. Consequently, we expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate again in October and three times more in 2019.