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Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Saskatchewan—2020 The Conference Board of Canada, 34 pages, March 31, 2020 Report

Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Saskatchewan—2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 34 pages, March 31, 2020
Report

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This annual economic forecast for the province of Saskatchewan examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions. Document Highlights Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook. Saskatchewan is projected to have one of the highest fertility rates and population growth of all the provinces. Real GDP growth will be limited by more modest business investment than in previous decades. The unemployment rate will gradually fall, going from 5.4 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent in 2040. The drop will be accompanied by modest gains in real wage growth. Freer trade with Asian economies and the European Union should benefit Saskatchewan’s agriculture producers, although the ongoing dispute between Canada and China remains a concern. The oil and gas and potash industries will remain key sources of economic growth for Saskatchewan over the forecast period, but both have serious downside risks. Table of Contents Summary Saskatchewan—Weak investment hurting Saskatchewan’s potential Overview Demographic patterns Potential output Aggregate demand Industry analysis Appendix A—Defining and estimating potential output for Canada’s provinces Measuring potential output Estimating potential employment Estimating capital Estimating total factor productivity The output gap Appendix B—Data Tables

This annual economic forecast for the province of Saskatchewan examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook.

Saskatchewan is projected to have one of the highest fertility rates and population growth of all the provinces.
Real GDP growth will be limited by more modest business investment than in previous decades.
The unemployment rate will gradually fall, going from 5.4 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent in 2040. The drop will be accompanied by modest gains in real wage growth.
Freer trade with Asian economies and the European Union should benefit Saskatchewan’s agriculture producers, although the ongoing dispute between Canada and China remains a concern.
The oil and gas and potash industries will remain key sources of economic growth for Saskatchewan over the forecast period, but both have serious downside risks.

Summary

Saskatchewan—Weak investment hurting Saskatchewan’s potential

Overview
Demographic patterns
Potential output
Aggregate demand
Industry analysis

Appendix A—Defining and estimating potential output for Canada’s provinces

Measuring potential output
Estimating potential employment
Estimating capital
Estimating total factor productivity
The output gap

Appendix B—Data Tables

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