Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Alberta—Autumn 2019
The Conference Board of Canada, 20 pages,
January 10, 2020
This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
- The economy will return to growth as constraints on oil exports ease and the Trans Mountain Expansion project encourages investment in the oil sands.
- Real business investment will grow 2.5 and 5.6 per cent over the next two years as businesses look to grow their oil sands operations and two new petrochemical complexes ramp up construction.
- The new United Conservative Party government released its first provincial budget, introducing more stringent spending measures in an attempt to reach a balanced budget by 2023.
- As economic momentum picks up, wages and salaries will see better growth. But it will take until 2022 before they return to their 2014 levels.
- The unemployment rate will rise in 2020 as net interprovincial migration improves and the labour force expands faster than job creation. The unemployment rate will be slow to fall in the outer years of the forecast despite activity picking up in the oil sands, as the government spending cuts will weigh on public sector employment.