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Updated: January 18 , 2021 | Français
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp contraction in economic activity throughout the world. We expect global real GDP to decline by 4.7 per cent this year, crushed by the lockdowns that brought a halt to non-essential activities in most countries in the second quarter of 2020. The global economy recovered part of the lost ground in the third quarter, but a second wave of the virus and a delay in additional stimulus measures in the United States is hampering the recovery in the fourth quarter.
Contents of the Provincial Outlook:
Canada’s economy is on the mend, but the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are far from over. We expect localized closures and retrenchments in some segments of household spending and business activity to hold back the pace of recovery into mid-2021.
The economic outlook varies for Canada’s provinces because of the different effects of the pandemic on the country’s industries.
A resurgence in COVID-19 cases globally will hold back demand for energy and keep the recovery in tourism on hold.
Massive government support has lifted aggregate household incomes well above their 2019 levels, supporting a surge in retail spending over the summer months.
The income support, coupled with rock-bottom interest rates, has fired up housing markets across the country. The finance, insurance, and real estate sector will do well this year despite the pandemic.
For most provinces, economic activity will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second half of 2021.
The federal and provincial governments are running up massive deficits this year. We expect growth in government spending to slow sharply once the crisis is past.
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