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Metro Resale Snapshot: October 2013

Mixed Results for September Sales

Existing home sales in September were above August's level in 16 of the 28 major markets covered by this report. The year-over-year sales growth picture continues to be flattered by comparisons with weak 2012 activity, which followed a tightening of mortgage rules. Many markets, therefore, showed large year-over-year transaction increases.

Listings fell between August and September in 17 markets, including 5 where the monthly dip was more than 5 per cent. Still, listings were higher than a year earlier in 16 areas. A 31 per cent listings jump in Saguenay led the year-over-year increases.

The sales-to-listings ratio rose between August and September in 18 markets. A rising ratio suggests future strengthening in price growth.

Balanced conditions prevailed in 19 markets during September, down from 21 in August. Calgary, Thunder Bay, and Windsor reported sellers' conditions. Regina and Saskatoon remain in buyers' states despite their strong economies. Trois-Rivières joined Québec, Gatineau, and Saguenay in the buyers' category.

Existing home price growth was uneven. The average sale price rose in 14 markets between August and September, while rising faster (or declining less) in 16 areas. All but three markets reported a price increase on a year-over-year basis last month, including 14 where the gain was 4 per cent or more.

Prices are expected to continue rising in almost all markets, but Calgary is expected to see the largest increase.


Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

+7% Calgary
5–6.9% Edmonton, Saskatoon, Thunder Bay, Oshawa, Hamilton, London, Saint John
3–4.9% Vancouver, Regina, Winnipeg, Toronto, Windsor, Kingston, Trois-Rivières, Newfoundland, St. Catharines
0–2.9% Victoria, Fraser Valley, Sudbury, Kitchener, Ottawa, Québec, Sherbrooke, Halifax, Saguenay, Gatineau
Falling Montréal

Resale Indicators for September 2013

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Balanced 6,396
2.5
9.7
11,352
0.2
–17.2
0.556 0.466–0.752 487,685
–0.6
3.4
Vancouver


Balanced 34,836
6.7
47.1
56,004
–1.5
–13.4
0.643 0.425–0.712 794,245
1.6
8.2
Fraser Valley4


Balanced 14,868
2.1
28.1
25,908
–6.1
–11.2
0.561 0.424–0.691 491,904
2.2
–1.2
Calgary


Sellers 31,896
–4.1
15.1
42,696
–2.2
2.9
0.751 0.465–0.743 436,776
–0.9
8.7
Edmonton


Balanced 21,336
3.8
11.8
30,180
–0.9
–5.8
0.691 0.458–0.755 348,105
0.2
8.1
Regina


Buyers 3,864
–4.7
8.8
7,392
–4.9
10.0
0.519 0.539–0.772 322,256
3.4
5.7
Saskatoon


Buyers 5,604
1.1
–2.5
12,168
0.7
8.3
0.448 0.474–0.721 336,106
3.1
7.4
Winnipeg


Balanced 12,108
–4.9
0.8
19,188
0.1
10.6
0.640 0.430–0.810 264,190
–1.3
3.6
Thunder Bay


Sellers 2,124
–2.2
–5.3
2,904
2.5
–2.8
0.753 0.478–0.713 189,060
–1.6
4.7
Sudbury


Balanced 2,772
8.5
22.9
4,524
0.5
12.9
0.602 0.324–0.619 237,404
–3.1
0.1
Toronto


Balanced 97,980
2.4
20.1
157,080
–1.6
–7.1
0.612 0.453–0.680 536,354
2.2
5.3
Oshawa


Balanced 10,308
–5.6
10.7
14,844
–3.8
–4.3
0.676 0.465–0.724 352,986
–1.0
5.3
Hamilton


Balanced 14,868
5.4
21.2
20,124
0.2
0.8
0.717 0.390–0.763 390,861
1.3
8.7
St. Catharines


Balanced 2,784
8.4
5.0
4,524
–6.0
–6.7
0.605 0.364–0.643 262,102
–5.6
2.8
Kitchener


Balanced 6,396
–2.4
1.9
11,856
2.9
3.1
0.559 0.449–0.703 316,162
–1.6
2.8
London


Balanced 7,992
–2.1
–2.9
16,224
–6.2
0.2
0.485 0.393–0.609 251,193
–0.3
6.4
Windsor


Sellers 5,616
3.3
13.6
9,348
–0.9
0.9
0.594 0.426–0.591 180,225
–0.8
3.5
Kingston


Balanced 3,240
–10.9
–2.9
7,284
–2.9
5.9
0.449 0.346–0.645 281,542
1.6
5.4
Ottawa


Balanced 14,688
1.4
5.4
29,136
–3.0
–1.7
0.502 0.396–0.681 355,743
0.4
–1.1
Gatineau


Buyers 3,840
9.6
10.7
8,208
5.2
–0.1
0.480 0.488–0.715 243,352
4.6
0.3
Montréal


Balanced 38,508
–2.6
2.3
75,984
–5.5
–2.6
0.504 0.472–0.879 309,993
–1.6
–2.7
Québec City


Buyers 6,564
–0.9
–6.3
12,600
–4.0
3.0
0.501 0.556–0.769 259,673
0.5
1.9
Sherbrooke


Balanced 1,728
2.9
3.6
3,372
3.3
1.4
0.499 0.479–0.713 233,034
0.7
0.1
Trois-Rivières


Buyers 948
–7.1
–4.8
1,980
–8.3
14.6
0.468 0.487–0.752 157,906
–3.9
15.9
Saguenay


Buyers 1,116
1.1
–21.2
2,868
7.7
31.3
0.382 0.492–0.725 200,553
8.1
19.4
Saint John


Balanced 1,536
1.6
2.4
4,128
–4.2
–2.5
0.375 0.365–0.588 173,240
–1.9
11.2
Halifax


Balanced 5,244
–10.3
–13.8
11,232
5.1
4.0
0.481 0.460–0.689 276,537
0.6
3.2
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,224
0.9
2.3
9,960
–3.6
12.0
0.426 0.356–0.576 276,123
–3.5
0.0

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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