The extension of lockdowns in Germany and a slow rollout of the vaccination campaign create concerns about the economic outlook for 2021. Activity is expected to stagnate in the Euro Area in Q1 after a negative Q4 2020, but it is likely to rebound in Q2 and Q3. The decline of activity in the manufacturing sector in January is the first tangible cost of Brexit. Domestic demand and exports will suffer the most in Q1. All in all, we expect GDP growth will be modest in Europe in 2021.