Growth has slowed since the middle
of 2018 but will remain slightly above its long-term trend for the time being.
Even with job creation slowing, the labor market remains a powerful force
propelling consumption forward thanks to rapid wage growth and low unemployment.
Consumer confidence has fallen back recently but remains at historically high
levels. The yield curve became inverted briefly, which is normally an important
recession indicator. In this case, the fall of the long rate reflected a change
in the Federal Reserve’s views on inflation rather than growth and therefore
should not be interpreted as a sign that recession risks are elevated. Of more
concern is profits growth, which stalled at the end of 2018 and faces pressure
from low business margins and slowing domestic and external demand