Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Energy—July 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 9 pages, July 27, 2020
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on energy. For an overview of all major components of the economy, download the Canadian Outlook Summary.

Document Highlights

  • The economic devastation brought on by the coronavirus pandemic is still weighing heavily on fuel demand, but a recovery is under way.
  • Efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to curb production are being reciprocated by major oil-producing countries, such as the United States, Canada, and Norway.
  • Deep cuts made by producers in Western Canada have helped push Western Canadian Select prices back to the US$30 per barrel mark. But that still leaves many producers short of breaking even.
  • The active rig count remains dismal, at roughly 85 per cent lower than at the same time last year. This paints a bleak picture of what to expect for oil and gas production in the short run.
  • With the exception of the LNG Canada project, virtually all major investments have been put on hold or deferred indefinitely. Oil and gas investment will fall 35 per cent in 2020.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Energy snapshot

Long road to recovery ahead

Worldwide production cuts lift the floor on prices

Production outlook battered by historic curtailments

Investments deferred amid barren business landscape

COVID-19: Get all the insights

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