Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Alberta—2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 33 pages, March 31, 2020
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This annual economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Please note that this forecast was prepared before COVID 19 dramatically changed the near term economic outlook.

  • Oil prices will slowly rise over the long term, but little change is expected in inflation-adjusted terms after 2025.
  • Alberta’s economic fortunes will continue to be tied to the oil sands although, beyond 2024, any improvements to pipeline export capacity will be limited to minor expansions and optimization of existing infrastructure.
  • While wages have been pulled lower by the recent economic downturn, the average worker in Alberta will continue to earn more than any in other province over the long term.
  • Growth in household spending, though slower than in previous decades, will remain robust.
  • Lower commodity prices over the forecast will keep bitumen royalties paid to the Alberta government low. That, in the absence of new revenues from elsewhere, will curb public spending.

Table of Contents

Summary

Alberta—Alberta to lead provinces in long-term growth

  • Overview
  • Demographic patterns
  • Potential output and productivity
  • Aggregate demand
  • Key industrial sectors
  • Energy sector developments provide economy-wide benefits

Appendix A—Defining and estimating potential output for Canada’s provinces

  • Measuring potential output
  • Estimating potential employment
  • Estimating capital
  • Estimating total factor productivity
  • The output gap

Appendix B—Data Tables

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