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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Spring 2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 64 pages, June 7, 2019
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP is expected to increase by 1.4 per cent in 2019, down from 2.4 per cent in 2018.
  • Adverse developments in housing, trade, and investment are the main factors behind the weaker growth over the near term.
  • The downturn in Toronto’s housing markets has likely bottomed out, although housing affordability will continue to be a problem.
  • Over the medium term, the auto sector will benefit from Toyota’s decision to expand production of its Lexus model.
  • Government spending will be constrained as the province enters a period of spending cuts and weaker economic growth.
  • Export growth will be constrained by tumbling U.S. vehicle sales despite the weak value of the loonie.

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