Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (PDF)
The Conference Board of Canada, 28 pages
December 18, 2018
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019.
- Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth.
- Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending.
- Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta.
- Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector.
Table of Contents
- Economic Risks Tilt to the Downside
- World Economic Growth Plateauing
- U.S. Economy Is Moving Toward More Sustainable Growth
- Households Tighten Their Purse Strings
- Rising Interest Rates, Moderating Employment Gains, and Policy Moves Cool Housing Markets
- Collapse in Oil Prices Hitting Canada’s Energy Sector Hard
- Investment Growth Will Be Led by the Non-mining Side
- Trade Hits a Few Speed Bumps
- Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns
- Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach
Appendix A—Forecast Tables