Canada 2040: No Immigration Versus More Immigration
This report examines the economic implications of no immigration in Canada and quantifies the impacts of gradually increasing immigration. It also looks at the economic impacts of Canada’s three immigrant admissions classes (economic, family, and refugee).
- Following the announcement of Canada’s 2018–2020 Immigration Levels Plan, this report forecasts the economic and fiscal impacts of gradually increasing immigration levels through to 2040.
- It also asks: What would happen to the economy if Canada shut its doors to immigrants completely? A no-immigration world would result in weak economic growth and fiscal strain—reducing the motivation for private investment. Productivity enhancing investments would not fully compensate for the negative impacts of a shrinking workforce.
- The contributions to economic growth of Canada’s three immigration classes are examined, with a focus on the family class given its sizable role in total immigrant admissions. Family class immigration has a role in supporting economic development and Canada has taken additional steps in recent years to ensure this class does not pose an undue economic burden. It is important for Canada to boost the labour market outcomes of family class immigrants as the country becomes more dependent on immigrants to support its economic growth.
Table of Contents
- Our Forecast Assumptions
- No Immigration Versus More Immigration
- One Per Cent Immigration Scenario Results
- Forecasting the Contributions to Economic Growth of the Three Immigration Classes
- The Economic Impacts of Family Reunification
Appendix A—Our Forecast Assumptions