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Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 181 pages, January 30, 2019
Report
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019.
  • Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth.
  • Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending.
  • Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta.
  • Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

RÉSUMÉ

Chapter 1—Household Income and Employment

  • Retirement Boom Will Challenge Firms

Chapter 2—Household Consumption

  • Consumers Face Many Threats

Chapter 3—Housing

  • Canada’s Housing Market Is Cooling
  • Forecast Underpinnings
  • Forecast
  • Local Housing Markets

Chapter 4—Government

  • Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns
  • Federal Fiscal Outlook
  • Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Chapter 5—Business Investment

  • Evaluating Canada’s Investment Performance
  • Investment Drivers
  • Investment by Industry
  • Investment by Category

Chapter 6—International Trade

  • Trade Hits Some Speed Bumps
  • Trade Outlook
  • Merchandise Exporters Face Many Challenges
  • Sluggish Domestic Demand a Drag on Merchandise Imports
  • Services Deficit Holds Steady
  • Current Account Deficit Widens in 2019

Chapter 7—Energy

  • Collapsing Oil Prices Hit Canada’s Energy Sector
  • Canadian–U.S. Oil Price Differential Has Been Widening
  • Energy Investment Is Driven by LNG
  • Production Cuts Mean Weaker Output in the Oil Sands

Chapter 8—Industry Trends

  • Slowdown in 2019
  • Many Resource Industries Face a Difficult 2019
  • Construction Activity Grinds to a Halt in 2019
  • Manufacturing Sector Begins to Slow
  • Outlook for Commercial Services Is Positive
  • Population Aging Boosts Demand for Health Care
  • Public Administration Output Moderates in 2019

Chapter 9—Financial Markets

  • Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach
  • Loonie Remains Under Pressure
  • U.S. Monetary Policy Brewing Tensions
  • Monetary Policy in Other Countries

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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