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Metropolitan housing starts: July 15, 2020

Expectations still largely negative

  • There are four census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with both positive short- and long-term expectations, one more than last month.
  • Negative expectations continue to outweigh positive expectations for the long term.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decreases in housing starts in June were Halifax, Regina, Calgary, St. John's, and Edmonton.
  • Sherbrooke had the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in housing starts last month due to a big increase in apartment starts, which are generally infrequent in smaller communities.

Expectations quadrant


Long Term header
Short Term header
  • Oshawa
  • Toronto
  • Regina
  • Edmonton

 

  • Montréal
  • Hamilton
  • Windsor
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • St. John’s
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Winnipeg
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Moncton
  • Québec City
  • Saguenay
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Sherbrooke
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • London
  • Abbotsford–Mission

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.

Metropolitan housing starts

Expectations
Year ago 6–Mon. MA 3–Mon. MA June 2020 Short term* Long term**
St. John’s 660 258 207 301 +
Halifax 6,328 2,333 1,864 1,432
Saint John 995 468 296 466
Moncton 2,669 1,012 1,567 1,328
Québec CMA 11,568 n.a.*** n.a.*** 11,331
Montréal 40,011 n.a.*** n.a.*** 39,301 +
Trois-Rivières 306 n.a.*** n.a.*** 990
Saguenay 547 n.a.*** n.a.*** 480
Sherbrooke 834 n.a.*** n.a.*** 4,114
Ottawa–Gatineau 10,436 11,269 11,027 10,852
Kingston 354 836 1,273 780
+
Greater Sudbury 231 126 147 179 +
Thunder Bay 157 741 231 355 +
Oshawa 2,144 1,589 1,594 1,627 + +
Toronto 34,829 36,409 43,446 39,703 + +
Hamilton 1,694 2,506 1,604 2,711 +
St. Catharines–Niagara 1,932 2,247 2,385 4,446 +
Kitchener–Waterloo 3,754 3,945 3,329 7,340 +
London 4,878 3,318 2,550 2,582
Windsor 766 1,211 1,157 1,860 +
Winnipeg 8,399 4,939 4,946 6,366 +
Regina 761 626 619 276 + +
Saskatoon 1,630 1,464 1,428 1,897 +
Calgary 12,840 8,282 6,641 4,845 +
Edmonton 14,807 10,422 9,637 6,901 + +
Vancouver 41,468 19,785 21,223 23,577 +
Victoria 2,473 3,126 3,656 2,342 +
Abbotsford–Mission 788 1,329 517 590

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
***CMHC did not collect data for Quebec in April, as the province's residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.



About the Metropolitan housing starts

The monthly Metropolitan housing starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 29 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID‑19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.



Jane McIntyre    By Jane McIntyre
   Senior Economist

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