Many recovery scenarios are possible in 2020—all are challenging

The Conference Board, Inc., 9 pages, May 11, 2020
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While new COVID-19 cases appear to have peaked in the US, strict social distancing policies continue to cripple the economy. We envision four possible scenarios for the US economy in 2020—all of which yield a contraction.

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While new COVID-19 cases appear to have peaked, strict social distancing policies continue to cripple the US economy. At present, the first-order impacts of the social distancing campaign are unfolding, but second-order impacts will begin to emerge if the economy doesn’t start to reopen soon. However, reopening too rapidly risks a reacceleration in COVID-19 infections. The Conference Board has developed an industry-based economic model to forecast four distinct scenarios for the US economy in 2020. These scenarios yield annual economic contractions of –3.6 to –7.4 percent.

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