Global Trade

Economic report
The Next Recession Conference

The current global economic landscape is dominated by uncertainty—Brexit, a trade war between the U.S. and China, and sovereign debt concerns in Greece and Italy are only the beginning. At the same time, budget deficits and low interest rates are limiting Canada’s responsiveness to future economic downturns.

June 17, 2020

Canadian industrial outlook: Aerospace—February 2020  

Strong growth in passenger traffic and commercial airline production in recent years led to a robust recovery for the aerospace industry. However, as the global economy slows and growth in passenger traffic continues to weaken, the industry may be reaching the end of the latest growth spurt.

February 6, 2020 Briefing by Elise Nelson

Index rise hides worrisome story -- The composite leading index uses monthly data that foreshadow future economic growth. While the index rose this month, it’s level is the second lowest in two years, which suggests slower economic growth going forward.

Cory Renner

Cory Renner

Senior Economist

Three trends to watch in 2020, and cases of déjà-vu

Canada just entered a new decade in 2020, but there are several unsolved challenges that we’ll have to deal with over the coming years. The external landscape is also challenging, especially as the United States and China are, one day, working toward a trade deal, or the next day, ramping up the tariff war—with either outcome likely hurtful for Canada’s own trade prospects.

Pedro Antunes, January 30, 2020 | Quick-take

Economic report
Time to rethink internal trade in Canada

Over the last few decades, both Canada and Australia have aggressively pursued open international trade policies, but Australia has been much more effective. The legislation has proven successful in helping create a single market by aligning regulations and occupational qualifications (for registered occupations) and lowering the cost of doing business for companies operating in the Commonwealth.

Pedro Antunes, January 14, 2020 | Blog

Economic report
U.S. Outlook economic forecast: Winter 2020

The U.S. economy expanded in 2019, however weaker growth is anticipated in 2020. As investment spending and export growth continue to weigh on economic activity. The economy is growing at a pace close to its potential, while labour markets continue to add new jobs per month.

Kip Beckman, January 15, 2020 | Report

Economic report
Composite leading index: Rise in index is not enough to mask risks -November 2019

The composite leading index of the Canadian economy sums up the performance that track the short-term course of the economy. Weakness in the U.S. leading index was a big reason for weakness in Canada’s leading index over the last two months.

Cory Renner, January 7, 2020

Economic report
Canadian outlook summary: Winter 2020

The headline story about the economy over the past few months has been the likelihood of a recession in the coming year. Global growth slowed as the trade war between China and the U.S. escalated, and this has driven fears that Canada—a country that is highly dependent on trade—could be on the brink of recession.

Matthew Stewart, December 17, 2019 | Website

Canadian industrial outlook: Finance and insurance—December 2019

Robert Meyer-Robinson —December 9, 2019

Canadian industrial outlook: accommodation—December 2019

Canada’s accommodation industry has been a star performer since 2018. However, these top-line numbers conceal the forces at work that have started to disrupt the industry. In recent years, the competition from private short-term accommodations has significantly intensified and is now having substantial impacts on traditional hoteliers and the overall industry.

Klaus Edenhoffer, December 9, 2019 | Report

Labour productivity posts modest gain

Growth in labour productivity of Canadian businesses increased in the third quarter and is up compared to a year ago. But it’s less than half the pace of productivity growth seen in the U.S. over the past year.

Richard Forbes, December 4, 2019 | Blog