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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Alberta—Autumn 2017

The Conference Board of Canada, 76 pages, January 2, 2018
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Strong oil production and drilling activities in 2017 have lifted Alberta out of its worst recession in more than half a century.
  • Alberta outpaced Canada as a whole in 2017, with robust economic growth of 6.7 per cent. But, growth will moderate to 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019 as the oil and gas sector goes through a slow recovery and oil sands investment stabilizes at a low level.
  • Spending on durable goods rose 9.0 per cent this year as consumers went on a post-recession buying spree. But durable good expenditures are expected to slow to 0.7 per cent in 2018.
  • Low oil prices will continue to weigh on business investment.
  • Growth in exports will moderate in the near term as Alberta’s oil production advances at a more modest pace.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Résumé

Alberta—Alberta Makes a Comeback

  • Consumers Go on a Post-Recession Purchasing Spree
  • Business Investment
  • Alberta’s Fiscal Situation on Shaky Ground
  • Trade and Energy Outlook

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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