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The Conference Board Economy Watch: October 2020—United States View The Conference Board, Inc., 7 pages, November 13, 2020 Report

The Conference Board Economy Watch: October 2020—United States View

The Conference Board, Inc., 7 pages, November 13, 2020
Report

U.S. GDP growth will surge in Q3 but will cool substantially in Q4 as the consumer rebound fizzles. Document Highlights The steady recovery in economic indicators in Q3 2020 is beginning to decelerate. The Conference Board’s base case forecast scenario for the U.S. economy yields a 34.6 percent (annualized) pop in GDP growth in Q3 but growth of just 1.5 percent in Q4. Improvements in the labour market, consumer confidence, and personal savings rates are not driving a sufficiently rapid rebound in consumption to quickly end the recession. However, as the path to recovery remains highly uncertain, we also offer upside and downside scenarios for future growth.

U.S. GDP growth will surge in Q3 but will cool substantially in Q4 as the consumer rebound fizzles.

Document Highlights

The steady recovery in economic indicators in Q3 2020 is beginning to decelerate. The Conference Board’s base case forecast scenario for the U.S. economy yields a 34.6 percent (annualized) pop in GDP growth in Q3 but growth of just 1.5 percent in Q4. Improvements in the labour market, consumer confidence, and personal savings rates are not driving a sufficiently rapid rebound in consumption to quickly end the recession. However, as the path to recovery remains highly uncertain, we also offer upside and downside scenarios for future growth.

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