Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast—Executive Summary: 2019 (WEB)
The Conference Board of Canada,
December 7, 2018
This annual economic forecast presents the highlights of the long-term national outlook.
- The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2018 and 2019. However, growth is expected to slow to below 2 per cent beginning in 2020.
- The economy has been driven by robust household spending in recent years. This has been spurred in part by high home prices and a large increase in consumer debt.
- Over the next few years, employment growth will be constrained by slow labour force growth and low unemployment. This will combine with high household debt and rising interest rates to temper real consumer spending.
- Non-residential business investment has not yet recovered from its decline following the commodities price crash of 2014. The current weakness is largely the result of low investment in mining.
- Business investment is expected to post solid growth as the new US–Mexico–Canada trade deal lowers uncertainty and businesses respond to high levels of capacity utilization.
- The economy has operated below full capacity over the last several years. However, it is projected to reach full capacity in 2020. After that, economic growth will be limited to an average of 1.7 or 1.8 per cent.