Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: April 2019
Market Meltdown Continues in Vancouver, but Toronto Looks to Be Levelling
- Sales were mixed again last month in Canada’s four largest cities. Vancouver’s market was in full correction mode, with sales off sharply. Montréal sales were down again, indicating the market may have peaked. Calgary sales stabilized, potentially signalling a market trough. Sales rose in Toronto, hinting at a firming market after the federal government imposed a tougher mortgage stress test.
- Vancouver’s sales-to-listings ratio fell again in April to a near all-time low. Montréal’s also fell but remains high. Ratios were up fractionally in Toronto and Calgary.
- Balanced markets prevail in 21 of our 29 areas. London, Kingston, Ottawa, Montréal, and Trois-Rivières face sellers’ conditions.
- Prices in Vancouver and Calgary were down again in April from a year earlier. Toronto prices rose moderately, while Montréal’s rose more substantially.
Recent Market Performance
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 |
|
|
 |
- Kitchener
- London
- Ottawa
- Vancouver
- Windsor
|
- Winnipeg
- Abbotsford
- Montréal
- Sherbrooke
|
|
|
 |
|
- Edmonton
- Saint John
- Saskatoon
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Newfoundland
- Calgary
- Halifax
- Guelph
- Regina
|
- St. Catharines
- Toronto
- Québec City
- Trois-Rivières
- Saguenay
|
|
*average during latest three months
Short-Term Year-Over-Year Price Change Expectations
| +7% |
 |
London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa |
| 5–6.9% |
 | St. Catharines, Kitchener, Montréal, Trois-Rivières |
| 3–4.9% |
 |
Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Guelph, Sherbrooke |
| 0–2.9% |
 |
Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Gatineau, Québec City, Saguenay, Saint John, Halifax |
| Falling |
 |
Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Regina, Saskatoon, Newfoundland |
Resale Indicators for April 2019
|
|
|
|
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio |
|
| Market1 |
Market
Classification |
Sales (#)2 |
Listings (#) |
Level |
Balanced Market
Range3 |
Price
($) |
| Victoria |
|
6,144 |
11,364 |
|
|
683,346 |
| m/m % |
Balanced |
–1.9 |
–4.2 |
0.531 |
0.481–0.765 |
1.2 |
| y/y % |
|
–9.1 |
3.7 |
|
|
–0.5 |
| |
|
17,796 |
57,852 |
|
|
987,521 |
| Vancouver |
Buyers’ |
–1.4 |
2.4 |
0.298 |
0.440–0.727 |
0.1 |
| |
|
–30.9 |
0.5 |
|
|
–4.5 |
| |
|
12,216 |
29,040 |
|
|
682,416 |
| Fraser Valley4 |
Buyers’ |
1.3 |
2.7 |
0.433 |
0.446–0.719 |
–3.6 |
| |
|
–17.6 |
–3.7 |
|
|
–9.3 |
| |
|
20,040 |
38,880 |
|
|
439,694 |
| Calgary |
Balanced |
5.2 |
–3.1 |
0.502 |
0.466–0.734 |
–1.3 |
| |
|
6.6 |
–17.9 |
|
|
–4.4 |
| |
|
18,576 |
40,500 |
|
|
362,398 |
| Edmonton |
Balanced |
7.8 |
3.8 |
0.456 |
0.450–0.736 |
–0.7 |
| |
|
0.3 |
–2.0 |
|
|
–2.5 |
| |
|
3,588 |
7,296 |
|
|
293,223 |
| Regina |
Buyers’ |
11.6 |
–1.8 |
0.490 |
0.495–0.763 |
0.0 |
| |
|
20.6 |
3.9 |
|
|
–1.2 |
| |
|
4,992 |
11,352 |
|
|
325,796 |
| Saskatoon |
Balanced |
11.5 |
2.5 |
0.439 |
0.429–0.688 |
4.5 |
| |
|
21.6 |
7.0 |
|
|
–1.3 |
| |
|
11,448 |
21,384 |
|
|
303,431 |
| Winnipeg |
Balanced |
–7.1 |
–3.9 |
0.536 |
0.449–0.794 |
2.0 |
| |
|
–4.0 |
1.4 |
|
|
2.3 |
| |
|
1,992 |
3,468 |
|
|
234,542 |
| Thunder Bay |
Balanced |
–4.6 |
9.1 |
0.618 |
0.501–0.727 |
–3.5 |
| |
|
2.5 |
8.2 |
|
|
10.7 |
| |
|
2,112 |
3,576 |
|
|
264,808 |
| Sudbury |
Balanced |
–8.8 |
2.4 |
0.618 |
0.343–0.626 |
2.6 |
| |
|
–16.6 |
–16.1 |
|
|
2.0 |
| |
|
84,684 |
160,044 |
|
|
769,951 |
| Toronto |
Balanced |
11.2 |
8.1 |
0.530 |
0.466–0.692 |
1.1 |
| |
|
19.5 |
4.9 |
|
|
1.9 |
| |
|
9,348 |
17,292 |
|
|
581,293 |
| Oshawa |
Balanced |
11.8 |
5.4 |
0.536 |
0.480–0.749 |
0.0 |
| |
|
17.9 |
4.0 |
|
|
0.2 |
| |
|
11,436 |
18,972 |
|
|
557,471 |
| Hamilton |
Balanced |
–0.5 |
–3.8 |
0.615 |
0.434–0.802 |
–0.3 |
| |
|
8.0 |
–0.6 |
|
|
4.7 |
| |
|
2,916 |
5,268 |
|
|
454,132 |
| St. Catharines |
Balanced |
4.7 |
4.8 |
0.556 |
0.395–0.712 |
0.4 |
| |
|
30.6 |
30.3 |
|
|
8.0 |
| |
|
7,308 |
11,484 |
|
|
511,703 |
| Kitchener |
Balanced |
2.4 |
5.7 |
0.699 |
0.483–0.763 |
2.3 |
| |
|
1.8 |
–4.5 |
|
|
10.4 |
| |
|
2,868 |
4,584 |
|
|
520,881 |
| Guelph |
Balanced |
8.1 |
5.8 |
0.632 |
0.505–0.839 |
–0.4 |
| |
|
3.0 |
7.3 |
|
|
3.1 |
| |
|
10,068 |
14,028 |
|
|
408,511 |
| London |
Sellers’ |
10.0 |
3.0 |
0.736 |
0.408–0.669 |
3.0 |
| |
|
11.9 |
8.1 |
|
|
13.4 |
| |
|
6,888 |
10,476 |
|
|
329,965 |
| Windsor |
Balanced |
1.2 |
8.3 |
0.675 |
0.445–0.677 |
1.7 |
| |
|
6.3 |
21.3 |
|
|
12.5 |
| |
|
3,972 |
6,096 |
|
|
394,311 |
| Kingston |
Sellers’ |
8.9 |
0.4 |
0.629 |
0.306–0.598 |
2.6 |
| |
|
5.1 |
8.8 |
|
|
9.8 |
| |
|
18,312 |
24,744 |
|
|
430,467 |
| Ottawa |
Sellers’ |
2.0 |
7.8 |
0.762 |
0.406– 0.683 |
0.3 |
| |
|
2.2 |
–6.8 |
|
|
7.5 |
| |
|
4,668 |
7,188 |
|
|
264,762 |
| Gatineau |
Balanced |
–5.8 |
3.3 |
0.643 |
0.444–0.683 |
–1.3 |
| |
|
3.5 |
–4.9 |
|
|
2.5 |
| |
|
48,144 |
67,248 |
|
|
398,248 |
| Montréal |
Sellers’ |
–1.0 |
–0.2 |
0.729 |
0.573–0.727 |
3.0 |
| |
|
7.5 |
0.8 |
|
|
7.6 |
| |
|
8,064 |
14,064 |
|
|
266,663 |
| Québec City |
Balanced |
10.3 |
2.3 |
0.567 |
0.503–0.736 |
–6.0 |
| |
|
10.7 |
29.5 |
|
|
–1.0 |
| |
|
1,608 |
2,712 |
|
|
263,564 |
| Sherbrooke |
Balanced |
–13.0 |
–0.4 |
0.602 |
0.452–0.688 |
3.6 |
| |
|
–8.2 |
–11.0 |
|
|
4.5 |
| |
|
1,632 |
1,956 |
|
|
162,431 |
| Trois–Rivières |
Sellers’ |
34.7 |
2.5 |
0.756 |
0.488–0.732 |
–8.6 |
| |
|
14.3 |
13.2 |
|
|
11.0 |
| |
|
1,500 |
2,340 |
|
|
168,872 |
| Saguenay |
Balanced |
7.8 |
–3.5 |
0.643 |
0.446–0.681 |
–8.9 |
| |
|
35.9 |
–6.7 |
|
|
–14.5 |
| |
|
2,052 |
3,516 |
|
|
184,140 |
| Saint John |
Balanced |
–7.1 |
8.1 |
0.583 |
0.370–0.586 |
–0.8 |
| |
|
3.0 |
–3.3 |
|
|
–8.4 |
| |
|
6,348 |
8,664 |
|
|
308,222 |
| Halifax |
Balanced |
1.7 |
12.5 |
0.731 |
0.425–0.753 |
–5.8 |
| |
|
4.1 |
–7.9 |
|
|
0.5 |
| |
|
4,416 |
11,292 |
|
|
241,722 |
Newfoundland
|
Balanced |
4.2 |
2.3 |
0.360 |
0.346–0.581 |
0.9 |
| (province) |
|
33.3 |
–4.1 |
|
|
–1.6 |
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro Resale Snapshot
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 29 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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