Robust non-residential construction together with output strength in wholesale trade, education, health care, and finance, insurance, and real estate will offset another contraction in manufacturing in Oshawa this year, resulting in overall real GDP growth of 2.7 per cent.
Although manufacturing output growth will ease in Guelph, Abbotsford–Mission, Sherbrooke, and Windsor this year, it will still be strong enough to help support overall economic growth of between 2.0 and 2.3 per cent in these metropolitan areas.
While gains in the services sector will largely support overall real GDP growth of between 1.6 and 1.9 per cent in London, Kingston, Moncton, and Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo this year, economic growth of 1.9 per cent in St. John’s will be thanks to increased production at the Hebron offshore oil field boosting output in the city’s primary and utilities sector. Trois-Rivières’s 1.8 per cent gain will be supported by a positive outlook in manufacturing.
The economies of St. Catharines–Niagara, Greater Sudbury, and Thunder Bay will expand by 1.2 or 1.3 per cent in 2018, led by moderate gains in construction. Saguenay’s 1.3 per cent expansion will come from healthy growth in the services sector.
This year’s economic laggard will be Saint John, as U.S. tariffs on softwood lumber and stalled housing starts will limit real GDP growth to 1.0 per cent.