Vaccines Spur Recovery Hopes: Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook—April 2021
The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages,
April 15, 2021
This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
- Real GDP in Ontario will advance by 4.5 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022, following a 5.5 per cent drop in 2020.
- The third wave of the COVID pandemic could prompt further lockdowns and represents a significant forecast risk. Ontario cases have soared and include the newer, more virulent strains of the virus.
- Economic indicators for the first quarter are mixed, pointing to tepid growth. Many industries continue to struggle with COVID-related issues.
Government programs have supported household incomes, but much of that income has gone into savings. This could sharply boost household spending over the next year.
- Ontario’s housing markets are red hot. Accelerating price growth increases the risk of a correction.
- Business investment will rebound in 2021, fuelled by new residential spending and resumed outlays on machinery and equipment.
- Growth in Ontario’s population will approach its 10-year average in 2023–25 after a brief lull in 2021–22.
Table of Contents
- Key findings
- Ontario snapshot
- Hope for Ontario's economic recovery
- Housing markets ignore pandemic
- Vaccine rollouts suggest economic improvement ahead
- Last year's savings will boost this year's consumption
- Investment poised for recovery
- Government spends now, but a reckoning awaits
- Weak outlook for trade