Up in the Air: Travel Markets Tourism Outlook—December 2020
This is a forecast and interactive dashboard of Canadian tourism in the wake of COVID-19. It explores traveller behaviour, the role of public health, and impacts on industry businesses—as well as how the nature of Canadian tourism could permanently change.
- COVID-19 hit the Canadian tourism sector harder than any other. Its contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was six times larger than the economy’s as a whole.
- Tourism’s recovery depends on a widely distributed vaccine, the lifting of public health measures, and a broader economic rebound.
- We expect the global pandemic experience to reshape travel patterns and preferences in the medium term. Traveller confidence will remain subdued for at least the next two years.
- Many small and medium-sized businesses in the tourism industry face the threat of insolvency. This may lead to consolidation in the sector and will entail some degree of permanent capacity loss.
- Tourism’s recovery at the provincial level will depend on how well COVID-19 is contained locally and how reliant each province is on international visitors.